It’s hard to find that many solid opportunities on the 2020 map. ![]() If Democrats lose the Alabama seat, they’ll need to pick up five seats to flip the chamber (six if they don’t win the presidency). Incumbent Republican Senator Dean Heller’s loss to Jacky Rosen in Nevada was a rare Senate victory for the Democrats | Ethan Miller/Getty Images The 2018 map was awful for Democrats - 10 incumbents running in states Trump carried in 2016, including five by double-digit margins - and while the 2020 map is better, there are few slam dunks for the party. That’s three more seats than the Republican Party holds now, and it may be enough to insulate the party against Democratic attacks in the next election. If Republican leads in Arizona and Florida hold, Republicans will hold 54 Senate seats. Democrats may have lost the Senate until 2022. Given the large number of Democratic candidates who won Tuesday night that have said they won’t support Pelosi to be the next speaker, she could use all the votes she can get - especially from California, where she’s more popular than she is nationally. There’s one specific Californian that will be watching the returns with intense interest: House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi. But late ballots in California tend to trend Democratic, so more could pull ahead in the coming days. Voters in California could postmark their ballots as late as Tuesday, and it will take weeks for all those votes to be tallied.Īs of Wednesday morning, Democratic candidates are only leading in three of the seven targeted California races. How many more seats will Democrats win? It could be awhile before we know for sure. Longtime California Republican Congressman Dana Rohrabacher fell to Democratic challenger Harley Rouda | David McNew/Getty Images How big is the wave? Wait for California.įor almost two years, California was seen as the key to Democrats’ quest for the House majority. Republicans kept only a handful of suburban seats, with Brian Fitzpatrick narrowly hanging on in Bucks County, Pa., and Danny O’Connor winning a re-run of this year’s special election near Columbus, Ohio.īut, for the most part, it was a suburban bloodbath. So did Randy Hultgren in outer Chicagoland. Incumbent Carlos Curbelo crashed and burned in South Florida. They knocked off both suburban Texas members: John Culberson in Houston and Pete Sessions in Dallas. But few Democrats were as confident they could oust Representatives Steve Russell in Oklahoma, or Karen Handel in suburban Atlanta.ĭemocrats won both toss-up races in Virginia, beating Representatives Scott Taylor in the Tidewater area and Dave Brat around Richmond. Republicans like Barbara Comstock in Northern Virginia, Mike Coffman in suburban Denver, Kevin Yoder outside Kansas City and Erik Paulsen in the Twin Cities were easy pickings for Democrats. Sharice Davids capitalized on Democrats’ suburban strength to knock off Republican Representative Kevin Yoder in Kansas | Whitney Curtis/Getty Images Here are seven takeaways from Tuesday’s Trump-powered midterms: But both were swamped by strong Republican margins and turnout in rural and inland counties that drove former Republican Representative Ron DeSantis’ victory in the governor’s race and Governor Rick Scott’s lead in the current vote count. Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson - the Democrats running for Florida governor and Senate, respectively - won Florida’s urban and suburban counties, including around Jacksonville, which was once Republican territory. ![]() In some races, that was a trade Republicans were willing to make. (Democrats also won more than three non-white voters for every one that voted Republican.) White voters without a college degree went for Republican candidates by nearly 25 points. Republicans, however, continued to surge among the non-college educated white voters that have powered the party in the Trump era. On the national House map, Democrats won white voters with a college degree by about 8 percentage points, according to the exit poll conducted for the National Election Pool - including white, college-educated women by roughly 20 points.įor the most part, it was a suburban bloodbath. Democrats continued to draw increasing support from white, college-educated voters that were once the core of the Republican Party. As of early Wednesday morning, 97 million votes had been counted solely for Democratic and Republican candidates, according to the New York Times, with millions more left to be tallied.īut just because the waves ran in opposite directions on the two maps doesn’t mean they weren’t driven by the same undertow. Turnout was off the charts for a midterm election: In the last midterm, in 2014, fewer than 79 million voters cast ballots for the House of Representatives.
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